What is the difference — pastorally speaking — between the three soils that don’t produce a flourishing crop and the shepherd who pursues the lost sheep?
The farmer sows the seed, and while the seed on the path does not take hold, seed in the rocky and thorny soil takes initial root before withering or being choked out. The word fails to flourish into faith. Meanwhile, the good shepherd leaves the ninety-nine strong flock to pursue the one who has wandered off.
As under-shepherds (1 Pet. 5:2-4) doing the work of sowing the seed and pastorally caring for the sheep in our flock, what is our responsibility towards those who walk away from faith and leave our ministry? Are they “lost sheep” whom we ought to pursue and bring back to the fold? Or are they non-flourishing soil who, despite our faithful efforts, have been choked out by the concerns of the world?
This was one of my questions coming away from the presentation by Dr Ruth Lukabyo at the most recent Theology Think Tank event. In this article, I want to summarise Lukabyo’s presentation and ponder some the implications for those in youth and young adult ministry.
When Young People Leave The Church
The Theology Think Tank is a twice-annual event hosted by Youthworks College that seeks to bring cutting-edge research in children’s and youth ministry to an audience of ministry practitioners. At the June event, Dr Ruth Lukabyo (Dean of Women and lecturer in Church History and Ethics) presented her most recent research on the perennial question of youth and young adult drop-off rates from church and faith. Titled ‘When Young People Leave the Church: Understanding Disaffiliation and Rebuilding Pathways of Faith’, Lukabyo summarised data from several large-scale Australian and international studies before presenting original qualitative and quantitative results from her and her colleagues’ ‘Australian Community Survey’.
Anyone engaged in children or youth ministry is aware of the extent of the problem. Yet the stark reality is worth repeating.
72% of those attending regularly at 11 no longer attended by the age of 18-291
72% of Australian 18-35 year olds who grew up Christian are no longer Christian or identify as Christian but don’t attend church2
44% of the children of church-going parents are no longer attending a church by the age of 303
36% of 15-24 year olds moved from identifying as ‘Christian’ to ‘no religion’ between 2016 and 2021 Australian Census4
Lukabyo’s contribution is unearthing the reasons for disaffiliation, based on 2,500 participant survey responses (45 respondents providing additional comments) and 6 long-form interviews.
Among the stated reasons for disaffiliation, the following themes emerged:
The process of growing up/making my own decisions (48% youth & 42% YA leavers); “I just grew out of goin (sic) to church”
Loss of faith/no longer believed (19% youth leavers); “I didn’t believe with what they were preaching”
Other interests became more important (13% youth & 21% YA leavers); “it did not take precedence in my life”
Moved to another area (19% YA leavers)5
A Reason To Stay?
Of course, as those ministering to children, youth and young adults, this research cannot spark mere curiosity. These are not numbers of a PowerPoint, but names and faces that we have spent hours, weeks, sometimes years investing in.
For six years, I co-led a group of teenage boys at Youth Group from Year 7 to their graduating year. At times, we had up to 30 boys in this group on Friday nights and Sunday evening church. Only a small handful of these young men are still following Jesus, and only one is still connected to my local church. I can see their faces, recall their names, and hear their voices in Lukabyo’s data.
What are the implications of this research? Are there practices that youth ministry teams can put into place that may mitigate against the disaffiliation of teens and young adults in their ministry? Here are three suggestions that came out of the presentation and discussions at the Theology Think Tank event.
Plan for transition points
There continues to be a strong correlation between church dropout rates and moments of social transition between primary and high school, high school and university/TAFE, and entry into the vocational workforce. Churches need to consider the structural and social scaffolds that may mitigate the loss of connection to church and ministry during these changes in life stage.Don’t skip searching faith
Questions need not be the end of faith. In fact, as Westerhoff has shown, the exploration of faith is an essential pathway into an authentically owned faith.6 Parents and leaders of youth and young adults need not despair when their young ones question, doubt and explore alternatives to the Christian faith. Adults do not need to have all the answers, but do need to be willing to engage in good-faith conversations, willing to walk alongside the young person in their explanation, and continue to offer a positive and coherent picture of what mature faith looks like.Model and teach authentic faith
Several of the reasons stated for disaffiliating came down to the lack of relevance of faith; because of life stage (matured out of faith), or from a seeming disconnect between Christianity and the respondent’s ethical, intellectual or existential concerns. Leaders and parents are not merely trying to prevent departure, but to offer a Christianity that is meaningful, credible, honest and relationally safe. In other words, a faith worth owning for oneself.
Still Pondering…
Lukabyo’s research provides important Australian data to the questions surrounding church drop-off, disaffiliation, and faith retention. However, I still have several questions, from the mildly curious to the more substantial.
What difference — if any — does birth order make to disaffiliation? My hypothesis would be that those who have older siblings who have left the faith are more likely to also leave the faith and to do so earlier, following in their siblings’ footsteps.
What difference — if any — does parents’ affiliation make to disaffiliation? Previous U.S. research has shown the strong connection between parent and child faith.7 Can we map the converse, that parents’ lack of faith and personal disaffiliation impacts the disaffiliation of their children?
How do churches and youth ministries create spaces of conviction and exploration? What do the weekly and annual rhythms of a church look like where faith can be confidently owned by the leaders while allowing for, and guiding through, teenagers’ own exploration of searching faith?8
Most importantly, does answering the questions and concerns of young people “fix” the problem of disaffiliation? The undercurrent of Lukabyo’s presentation was that doing the opposite of what has caused the young person to leave is sufficient to cause them to stay. If every question had been answered, if there had been no hypocrisy in the leadership, if the ethical positioning of the church was represented convincingly and convictionally, would they have stayed?
I’m not so sure…
What Lukabyo’s research doesn’t account for are the reasons that youth and young adults give for why they stay. I don’t fault Lukabyo for this — it’s an entirely different research topic. However, I am curious to know whether the reasons people stay are simply the opposite reasons given for why people leave. What are we missing in our structures and systems of ministry that helps foster faith that may be hidden from this particular set of research questions?
I Always Pray With Joy
At the end of the day, each person will give an account as to why they received or rejected the invitation to join the wedding feast of the King (Matt. 22:1-14). As those tasked with the leadership of youth and young adults, let us pray earnestly for the ongoing faith of our young people.
Perhaps Paul’s words to the Philippians may shape your prayers for your church’s young people today.
In all my prayers for all of you, I always pray with joy because of your partnership in the gospel from the first day until now, being confident of this, that he who began a good work in you will carry it on to completion until the day of Christ Jesus… God can testify how I long for all of you with the affection of Christ Jesus.
And this is my prayer: that your love may abound more and more in knowledge and depth of insight, so that you may be able to discern what is best and may be pure and blameless for the day of Christ, filled with the fruit of righteousness that comes through Jesus Christ – to the glory and praise of God.
Philippians 1:3-11
You can hear Ruth talk about her research on The Pastor’s Heart podcast, and read her own write-up at Youthworks.net.
2008-2009 International Social Survey Program (ISSP)
Barna Group, The Connected Generation: Australia/New Zealand Report (2019)
2021 National Church Life Survey (NCLS)
Wherrett, Dusting, and McCrindle, 2025. Source: Australian Census Longitudinal Data Set (ACLD)
All data taken from Lukabyo’s presentation slides
John H. Westerhoff, Will Our Children Have Faith, 3rd Revised Edition, 2012.
Christian Smith & Amy Adamczyk, Handing Down the Faith, 2020.
See Al James, ‘Discipling youth through identity struggles’ for a different paradigm of helping teenagers through “identity moratorium”.